购物节电商折扣预售策略研究——基于消费者最高估值与预售实现率的分析

Research on E-commerce Discount Pre-sale Strategy——Analysis based on the highest customer valuation and booking arrival rate

电商折扣预售模式可以地调动消费者的积极性,满足用户体验,激发市场需求。本文在同时考虑消费者估值不确定性和消费者预订到达情况时,通过建立两个阶段模型,分析电商企业针对策略型消费者的折扣预售策略,首先消费者根据消费者剩余效用最大化原则选择最佳购买时机,然后电商企业进一步考虑消费者的策略行为,依据逆推法和利润最大化原则决定最优的价格和订货量。研究表明:电商企业采用折扣预售策略时,消费者最高估值对电商企业的决策和期望利润都具有正向影响;随着告知型消费者到达人数的增加,最优订货量将会增加,而总期望利润则减少。

This paper analyzes the discount pre-sale strategy of e-commerce companies for strategic consumers while considering the uncertainty of consumer valuation and the arrival of consumers booking. This paper establishes a two-stage model. First, the consumer chooses the best buying opportunity through the principle of consumer surplus utility maximization. Then the e-commerce enterprise further considers the consumer’s strategic behavior, and determines the optimal Price and order quantity by the inverse push method and the profit maximization principle. The research shows that when the e-commerce enterprise adopts the discount pre-sale strategy, the highest value of the consumer has a positive impact on the decision-making and expected profit of the e-commerce enterprise;as the number of arrivals of the informing consumer increases, the optimal order quantity will Increase, while total expected profit decreases.