反倾销政策的贸易偏转效应研究--以对华农产品反倾销为例

Research on Trade Aversion Effect of Anti-dumping Policy--Taken Example of Anti-dumping of China's Agricultural Products

反倾销作为当代国际贸易活动中重要的贸易壁垒,被进口国当作限制进口、保护国内相关产业的重要举措频繁使用。然而,该政策的贸易保护预期是否真的得以实现还有待考察。利用2002年~2010年9起对华农产品反倾销案例中8位海关H.S.编码涉案农产品的出口数据,对国外对华反倾销措施在征收反倾销税后5年的贸易限制效应和贸易偏转效应进行实证分析,得出结论:反倾销税的征收会持续限制我国涉案农产品的出口;涉案出口企业在受征高额反倾销税时会通过向非指控国出口偏转以减少经济损失;考虑到市场的替代性,这种偏转更明显地集中于与发起国发展水平接近的发达国家,往发展中国家的偏转不明显。

Anti-dumping as important trade barrier in modern international trade activities, was frequently used by imported states as important measures to limit import and protect domestic related industries. However, whether the trade protection expectation of the policy can be realized or not needs to be investigated. By using the export data 8 bit custom H.S. code related agricultural products in anti-dumping cases against China, this paper takes an empirical analysis of the trade restriction effect and trade aversion effect after charging anti-dumping tax according to foreign anti-dumping measures, and obtains the conclusions: the charging for anti-dumping tax will continue to restrict China's involved agricultural export; the involved export enterprises under higher anti-dumping tax will reduce the economic loss by export aversion to non-charging states; By considering the substitution of market, this kind of aversion obviously concentrated in developed countries of which the development level similar to the sponsor nations, while the aversion to developing countries is not significant.