基于VEC模型的粮食价格和种植结构关系研究——以湖北省为例

Research on the Relationship between Grain Price and Plantation Structure based on VEC Model——Taken Hubei Province as Example

调整农业种植结构是农业供给侧结构性改革的首要任务,为了发挥价格在调整农业种植结构中的作用,首先必须厘清两者之间关系。利用1987年~2016年湖北省时间序列数据,在建立VEC模型的基础上进行实证研究。结果表明:价格和播种面积之间存在长期均衡和短期修正机制;粮食作物价格与其播种面积之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系,粮食作物价格能够解释粮食作物播种面积变化,并存在长期负向效应,反之则不能;经济作物价格与其播种面积之间互为因果,长期内经济作物价格对播种面积的影响效应为正;粮食作物与经济作物相对价格和相对播种面积之间存在长期均衡关系,表明价格波动对农户种植抉择具有显著影响。

Adjusting agricultural plantation structure is the primary task of the agricultural supply side structural reform,and to play a full role of price in adjusting agricultural plantation structure,the relationship must be cleared.By using the time sequence data of Hubei Province from 1987 to 2016,this paper makes empirical study based on building VEC mode.The results reveal that:there exists long run equilibrium and short run correction mechanism between price and plantation area;there is unilateral Granger causality between grain price and the plantation area,the grain price can explain the variation in plantation area and has long run negative effect,but not the opposite;the commercial crop price and the plantation area interact as both cause and effect,the impacting effect of the commercial crop price on the plantation area is positive in the long run;there is long run equilibrium relationship between the relative price of grain crop and commercial crop and relative plantation area,indicating a significant impact of price fluctuation on the farmers’plantation choices.