中国大豆与其主要进口来源国市场整合程度测度——基于时变Copula函数

Measurements of market integration degree of Chinese soybean and its main sources of imports——based on time-varying Copula function

基于2014年1月1日~2018年6月30日的中国与美国、巴西、阿根廷大豆的日度期货价格数据,构建二元时变Copula函数,运用MATLABR软件测度他们之间的市场整合程度。研究发现,中国对阿根廷大豆进口量低于美国和巴西,但是中国大豆市场与阿根廷大豆市场的整合程度最高,两国大豆市场间合作效率较高。未来需要在做好大豆产业目标规划的基础上,加大对阿根廷、巴西等南美大豆的进口,同时通过育种改良等科技支撑大豆产业发展,进而确保大豆产业安全发展。

Based on the daily futures price data of soybeans in China,the United States,Brazil and Argentina from January 1st,2014 to June 30th,2018,the binary time-varying Copula function was constructed and the market integration degree between them was measured by MATLABR software.The study found that China’s soybean imports from Argentina were lower than those from the United States and Brazil,but the degree of integration between Chinese soybean market and the Argentine soybean market was the highest,and the cooperation efficiency between the two countries was very high.In the future,it is necessary to increase the import of soybeans from Argentina,Brazil and other South American countries on the basis of planning the goals of soybean industry,and meanwhile to support the development of soybean industry through breeding improvement and other technologies,so as to ensure the safe development of soybean industry.