重大决策社会稳定风险评估的问题、回应与完善

Social Stability Risk Assessment of Major Policy Decision:The Problem, Response and Improvement

我国的重大决策社会稳定风险评估经过十年建设取得显著成效。但依然存在着领导机制不健全,评估主体单一,评估内容不完整,风险等级确定方法不科学,评估结论不公开,以及缺乏系统性的风险防范措施等问题。学界围绕稳评指标体系、风险估算定级方法、第三方评估和公众参与机制等问题开展了富有洞见的研究工作。本文在此基础上,提出以结构化风险识别与风险链识别相结合的方式完善社会稳定风险的辨识机制,以定量分析的风险链客观风险估算与定性分析的主观建构风险水平相结合的方法完善风险等级的研判机制,以阻断风险链为核心完善风险的防范机制。

Social stability risk assessment of major policy has achieved remarkable results after tenyears of construction in china. This system still exist the following problems: the leadership mechanism isnot perfect, evaluation subjects are single, assessment contents are not complete, methods to determine thelevel of risk are not scientific, the conclusions of the assessment are not open, systemic risk prevention mea-sures are lack and so on. The academia has carried out insightful research work of, such as, to construct theindex system, develop risk estimation methods, the third party evaluation and public participation mecha-nism. In this paper, on the basis of previous studies put forward the following suggestions: using a combinedmethod which structured risk identification and risk chain recognition to improve social stability risk identifi-cation of mechanism, using a combined method which risk estimation and risk construction risk grade levelto improve social stability risk analysis of mechanism, using a method which disruption risk chain to im-prove social stability risk prevention of mechanism.