我国货币政策效果的实证分析

A positive analysis on the effects of monetary policy in China

分析了1997年前后两个阶段我国货币政策效果。认为1984-1997年 ,货币政策在治理通货膨胀、推动经济发展过程中 ,效果明显。1998—2002年货币政策在对付通货紧缩、刺激有效需求中取得了一定效果 ,但效果相对弱化 ,主要表现在 :货币供应对经济增长的影响减弱 ,宽松货币政策未能避免物价走低 ,货币政策促进投资乏力 。

This thesis analyses the effect of monetary policy in China before and after1997.The author holds that the monetary policy achieved good results in the process of rectifing inflation and developing economy from1984to1997,and it is still working though weakening in rectifing deflation and stimulating demands.Such effects are:(a)money supply has less effect on economic growth;(b)the loose monetary policy can't prevent the commodity prices lowering down,increase investment and consumption effectively.