不确定的世界经济:新变局、新风险、新机遇——2019年世界经济分析报告

Uncertain World Economy:New Changes,New Risks and New Opportunities

2018年是世界经济曲折发展大变局的一年,全球贸易摩擦升温、金融环境收紧、政策不确定性加剧以及新兴经济体金融市场波动等将拖累全球贸易和投资增长,导致全球经济发展的可持续和包容性深受挑战。展望2019年,世界经济增长预期乐观程度降低,经济企稳仍将面临多重挑战,增长将放缓。其中,发达经济体经济增长势头趋缓,美国经济增长步伐将随着政府财政政策作用力减弱而回归平庸常态;欧元区因"内忧"(重债高位)和"外患"(全球贸易摩擦冲击)等,经济增长面临不可持续;日本将因贸易保护主义加剧和贸易摩擦升温,较快增长势头或将被打破。新兴经济体因国际贸易、投资和金融环境的不确定性加剧,经济和政治风险总体偏高,增长势头或将减弱,各国经济走势也将明显分化。中国因追求高质量、更健康的经济增长方式,增长势头将有所减弱。

The world economic situation has changed greatly in 2018.Global trade and investment growth is dragged down by rising global trade frictions,tightening financial environment,increasing policy uncertainty and volatility in financial markets of emerging economies.Looking forward to 2019,the world economic growth is expected to be less optimistic.There are multiple challenges affecting economic stability.Economic growth in developed economies has slowed down.The pace of economic growth in the United States will return to mediocrity as the role of government fiscal policy weakens.The euro zone is facing unsustainable growth due to 'internal worries' such as high debt levels and 'external troubles' such as global trade friction shocks.Economic growth is not sustainable.Japan’s economic growth will decline as trade protectionism intensifies and trade frictions heat up.Uncertainties in emerging economies have increased due to international trade,investment and financial environment.Economic and political risks are generally high.The economic growth of countries will be clearly differentiated.China’s growth will be weakend by its pursuit of a high-quality and healthier mode of economic growth.China’s growth will be weakened by its pursuit of a highquality and healthier mode of ewnomic groth.