公开市场表态稳定了人民币汇率吗?:基于2014～2017年人民币汇率干预事件的研究

Do Public Market Statements Stabilize RMB Exchange Rate?:Research Based on RMB Exchange Rate Intervention Events of 2014～2017

2014年以来,人民币汇率持续走低,为稳定人民币汇率,国家相关机构与发言人先后通过不同场合的公开表态以期稳定市场的人民币汇率预期。文章采用事件研究法对于公开表态事件对人民币汇率的影响进行了研究,并进行了实证检验。研究发现,在过去三年中,人民币汇率受贬值预期冲击的影响明显,中央银行、国务院等机构的公开表态并没有有效稳定人民币汇率,反而使得人民币汇率有进一步贬值趋势;分样本的分析表明,公开市场表态对"811"汇改后人民币汇率的影响显著。文章的结果表明,对未来的人民币汇率管理而言,中国的汇率管理机构应该在加强与市场沟通的同时,也要适当地进行实际干预,以提高信号指示的有效性。

Since 2014,the RMB exchange rate has been devalued.In order to stabilize the exchange rate of RMB,relevant state agencies and spokespersons have publicly stated their opinions on different occasions to stabilize the expectation of RMB exchange rate in the market.This article uses the event research method to study the impact of the public statements on the RMB exchange rate and conducts an empirical test.The result shows that during the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate over the past three years,the public statements of institutions such as central bank and the State Council do not effectively stabilize the exchange rate of RMB,which in turn devalue the RMB exchange rate.Furthermore,the sub-samples test shows that the public market statement has a significant impact on the RMB exchange rate after the '811' reform.For future exchange rate management,the exchange rate management agencies should not only strengthen communication with the market,but also use appropriate intervention practicel to improve the effectiveness of signal instructions.