资本账户开放对全要素生产率的影响:考虑金融危机因素的跨国实证研究

Effect of Capital Account Liberalization on Total Factor Productivity:an Empirical Study Taking Into Account the Factor of Financial Crisis

文章借助83个国家1996～2011年数据,并基于拓展的"处理效应"模型将资本账户开放可能引致金融冲击这一因素纳入资本账户开放影响全要素生产率的检验模型,重点考察了资本账户开放对一国全要素生产率增长率的整体影响。实证结果表明:虽然资本账户开放增加了经济体出现系统性银行危机的概率,进而对一国加总的生产效率造成一定的负面冲击,但是资本账户开放会更多地通过改善国内金融市场上资本的配置效率促进全要素生产率的提升。总体而言,在考虑金融危机因素的情况下资本账户开放影响经济体全要素生产率的净效应显著为正,以Kaopen指数衡量的资本账户开放程度每增加1个单位,全要素生产率增长率提高约0. 638%。在我国传统的资源驱动型经济增长模式难以为继的情形下,进一步扩大资本账户开放对实现从资源投入转变为生产率提高的经济增长有重要作用。

With adoption of 83 countries data between 1996 and 2011 ’this paper’ based on extended 'processing effect' model,includes the factor of capital account liberalization leading to financial crisis into the empirical test model that capital account liberalization affects a country’s total factor productivity growth,and emphatically analyzes the net effect of capital account liberalization.Empirical results have shown that on one hand,capital account liberalization will improve total factor productivity growth;on the other hand,it will lead to a higher propensity to financial shock and then exert negative effect on the improvement of total factor productivity.In general,the net effect of capital account liberalization on total factor productivity growth is positive.In the context of China’s traditional resource driven economic growth pattern difficult to continue,it plays an important role in achieving policy objective that changes main driving force of economic growth to productivity improvement by further expanding capital account liberalization and promoting the development of high-quality financial market.