中国对外贸易40年:政策回顾与展望

The Development of China's Foreign Trade in Last Four Decades: Achievement and Prospects

文章对改革开放40年以来中国对外贸易发展的成就、效应和政策进行了较为系统的梳理,并就对外贸易下一步扩张的约束条件和可能的选择做了前瞻性分析。研究显示:中国对外贸易40年最值得关注的成就是中国在全球价值链中地位的迅速变化; 40年外贸发展对于中国经济的影响包括经济增长、倒逼体制和成就制造业大国3个方面; 40年外贸政策的总基调是以保护为主,实行有限的贸易自由化。与此同时,40年外贸超高速发展也积累了一些问题,这些问题构成了下一步中国外贸扩张的约束条件,基于该约束条件分析并构建双向贸易的政策与体制势在必行。

This paper examines the achievements,effects and policies of China’s foreign trade development since the reform and opening up 4 decade ago,and makes a prospective analysis based on the constraints formed so far. The research shows that the most noteworthy achievements of foreign trade expansion in the past 4 decades are the rapid speed in terms of catching up with the United States comparing to that of Japan in the decades of the post WW II,and its changing position in the global value chain. The effects of foreign trade development on China’ s economy in the 4 decades so far can mainly be classified into three aspects:growth,institutional reform and building up of major manufacturing sectors. The general tone of foreign trade policy in the past 4 decades can be described as protection-oriented mixed with limited and forced trade liberalization. The author suggests that the rapid development of foreign trade in the past 4 decades has also accumulated some problems,which constitute the constraints for the foreign trade expansion in the next step. Based on the analysis of constraints,it is imperative to build a mechanism or policy system that encourages two-way trade.