人口结构转型能否重塑攀升价值链新动力?

Can Population Structure Transformation Reshape the New Impetus for GVC Upgrading?

当前中国人口结构进入关键转型期,主要包括两个方面:一是数量结构变化;二是质量结构调整。其中数量结构变化主要是指劳动力年龄结构优势弱化,这一变化无疑会导致传统比较优势丧失,致使"低端嵌入"全球价值链的发展模式难以为继。但劳动力年龄结构优势丧失会产生"倒逼"效应,从而有助于创新驱动发展。而质量结构调整,主要表现为劳动力质量结构的优化,这一变化无疑会创造新的推进动能。综合来看,当前中国人口结构转型会形成推动中国制造业攀升全球价值链的两种动力源,即倒逼效应和新动能。与单纯依托低成本劳动力优势形成的"要素驱动"力不同,这种新的动力机制本质上属于"创新驱动",这将有利于中国制造业迈向全球价值链中高端,并创造新的开放发展红利。基于1995～2011年WIOD与中国制造业相关数据进行的实证研究,所得结果进一步证实了上述判断。

Traditionally,the loss of ' Demographic Dividend' refers to the result of traditional comparative advantage loss due to the weakening advantage of the labor force age structure. At present,the demographic transition in China is not only reflected in the quantitative structure changes in,but also includes the adjustment of the quality structure. Such changes may form two sources of motivation,which will drive China’ s manufacturing industry to climb up the global value chain. One is the ' Forced' effect caused by the loss of the age structure advantage of the labor force;the other is the ' Advanced' energy created by the optimization of the labor quality structure. Different from the ' Factor Driving' force formed solely by the advantages of low-cost labor force,this new dynamic mechanism essentially belongs to ' Innovation-Driven',which will surely push China’s manufacturing industry step by step toward the middle and high end of the global value chain and create new demographic dividends by picking up the ' hanging fruit' of global industry and technology. Based on the empirical study of WIOD and Chinese manufacturing data from 1995 to 2011,the results further confirm the above judgment. Accordingly,at the critical period of the demographic transition in China,on the one hand,it is necessary to make full use of the important opportunity of ' Forced' mechanism generated by the loss of traditional advantages;on the other hand,we should strengthen ' The Strategy of Talented Persons Powering in the Nation' to speed up China’s manufacturing industry to pick up ' hanging fruit' in the GVC division system. Of course,it also cannot be ignored to optimize the replacement and the link-up of old and new energy.