全球价值链、汇率传递与出口贸易弹性

Global Value Chain,Exchange Rate Pass-through and Export Elasticity

文章在考虑全球价值链(GVC)前向联系和后向联系的基础上,建立汇率变动影响出口贸易的理论模型,评估汇率变动对中国制造业出口规模和出口结构的影响。研究发现,忽视GVC因素会导致出口贸易整体的汇率传递率低估7. 9%,汇率弹性高估15. 1%,电子信息和机械设备两个行业的汇率弹性高估30%以上。尽管GVC后向联系主导出口贸易的汇率传导机制,但前向联系在个别行业的影响力也不容忽视,并且随着制造业的价值链提升而趋于增强。GVC联系的行业差异和国别差异导致出口贸易弹性表现出鲜明的行业特征和国别特征,人民币升值有利于出口行业结构的高级化调整和出口市场结构的多元化调整。主要货币汇率的非对称变动虽然有利于中国出口总量的规模扩张,却不利于出口结构的优化调整。

Based on the forward linkage and backward linkage of global value chain( GVC),this paper sets up a theoretical model of how exchange rate influence export. Then we evaluate the effects of exchange rate movement on the export value and structure of Chinese manufacturing. The findings reveal that ignoring GVC factors will lead to understate the pass-through rate about by 7. 9 percent and overstate export elasticity by about 15. 1 percent. In the manufacture of computer,electronic and optical products and manufacture of machinery and equipment,the export elasticities will even be overstated by 30 percent. Even though GVC backward linkage dominates the transmission mechanism of exchange rate,the influence of GVC forward linkage in several manufactures should not be ignored and will be enhanced with upgrading value chain of Chinese manufacturing. The difference of GVC linkage among industries and countries leads export elasticity to behave distinct industry characteristics and country characteristics. RMB appreciation is in favor of the high gradation adjustment of export industry structure and diversification adjustment of export market structure. Asymmetric variation of major currencies is beneficial to Chinese export growth,but is unbeneficial to export structure optimization.