金融改革的次序选择与经济绩效——国际经验及对中国的启示

Sequence of Financial Reform and Economic Performance:Cross- Country Evidence and Its Application to China

资本账户自由化既能够促进资本流动,提高资源配置效率,也会导致短期资本流动大幅波动,影响经济增长。由此,资本账户自由化与国内金融改革之间出现了次序选择。在实践层面,既有国家优先进行资本账户自由化,也有国家优先进行内部金融改革。通过跨国数据,运用面板Granger因果检验方法分析金融改革次序选择规律,结果表明,对于低经济增长率的国家,内部金融改革优先于外部金融改革;对于高经济增长率的国家,并不存在内部金融改革优于外部金融改革,或是外部金融改革优先于内部金融改革的问题。

Capital account liberalization is one important part of financial reform. It could facilitate the capital flow and thus enhance the efficiency of resource allocation on the one hand,and lead to the fluctuation of short- term capital flow which has negative impact on economic growth on the other hand. Therefore,the problem whether capital account liberalization or domestic financial reform should go first arises. With different countries adopting different sequences,this paper tries to analyze the pattern by adopting panel Granger causality test. The research results reveal that domestic financial reform is prior to capital account liberalization in the countries with relatively low economic growth. On the contrary,there is insignificant sequence between domestic financial reform and capital account liberalization in the countries with relatively high economic growth.