中国信贷政策对产业结构调整效应研究

Research on the Effects of China's Credit Policies on Industrial Structural Adjustment: Based on TAR Model

基于非线性门限向量自回归(TAR)模型,运用1978~2013年的相关数据,研究中国信贷政策对产业结构的影响效应。实证表明,信贷政策对产业结构调整的影响存在显著的门限效应,表现为:在以金融机构各项贷款余额作为分界点的不同政策区制间,信贷政策对产业结构变动的影响存在很大差异。金融机构各项贷款余额的不断增加,对第一、第二产业产值比重增加的影响始终为正,但程度不同。当其增加到一定水平时,对第三产业产值比重增加的影响才由负转正,但明显弱于第一、第二产业。从这个方面看,中国信贷政策在扶持中小企业、发展第三产业,促进中国产业结构调整升级方面的作用还有待加强。

By adopting the non- linear threshold auto- regression( TAR) model to analyze the data from 1978 to 2013,this paper tries to study the impact that credit policy has on China's industrial structural adjustment. Threshold effects are found in the result analysis: there are big differences among policy regions separated by values of financial institutions' loans. The correlation between the increase of the amounts of financial institutions' loans and its effects on primary and secondary industry stays positive while the correlation between the increase of the amounts of financial institutions' loans and its effects on the tertiary industry turns from negative to positive only when the increase comes to a certain degree. However,the latter positive correlation is obviously weaker than the former positive correlation. In this sense,the credit policy needs improvement in order to better support SMEs and the tertiary industry,through which,to better facilitate the country's industrial structural adjustment.