证券投资项目开放、经济增长效应与资本流动——基于新兴市场国家的实证与启示

Securities Account Liberalization,Economic Growth and Capital Flows:Evidence and Enlightenment from Emerging Countries

证券投资项目开放是资本项目开放的重要组成部分,在拉姆塞—卡斯—库普曼模型的基础上构建理论模型,模型预测的结果显示,开放经济条件下向稳态的收敛速度要快于封闭经济条件下的收敛速度,即经济体向稳态收敛过程中,开放经济体的增长速度要高于封闭经济体。根据理论模型,设计包含证券投资项目开放变量和一系列宏观控制变量的面板数据模型,对新兴市场国家的证券投资项目开放和经济增长之间的关系进行考察,实证的结果显示,证券投资项目资本流入开放和证券投资项目总开放水平对新兴市场国家的经济增长具有促进作用;但证券投资项目资本流出开放在一定程度上减弱了总开放水平对经济增长的效应。

The securities account liberalization is an important part of capital account liberalization. This paper constructed a theoretical model based on the Ramsey- Cass-Koopmans model. The results predicted by the model show that a country in an open economy convergence to the steady- state develops faster than that in a closed economy. Hence,the growth effects of markets under the conditions of opening should also be greater than the closed economy. According to the theoretical model,we designed a panel data model that contains the securities markets liberalization variables and a series of macroeconomic variables. We made an empirical research on the relation of securities account liberalization and economic growth in emerging countries. Our empirical results show that the capital inflows and total flows have a role in promoting the economic growth in emerging market,but the net outflows in securities markets weaken the effect of total flows for economic growth.