延迟退休与中国社会养老保险制度:相容还是互斥?

Delaying Retirement Age and Social Pension Insurance in China: Compatible or Exclusive?

采用多元Logit模型实证分析现行的社会养老保险制度对参保人退休时间选择的影响,明确延迟法定退休年龄与参保人退休时间的自主选择是否一致,结果表明,如果现行制度的养老金替代率上升1%,男性倾向于按时退休,而女性选择延迟退休的概率提高6.15%,意味着制度仅对女性参保人主动选择延迟退休具有一定的激励作用;年度内养老金的待遇向上调整的次数越少,参保人越倾向于延迟退休。参保人延迟退休的倾向对养老金替代率的变动比对待遇调整次数的变动更为敏感。为配合延迟法定退休年龄的改革顺利实施,建议适当提高女性参保人的养老金替代率,适度减少其待遇调整次数;完善工资和养老金待遇的增长机制;体恤灵活就业人员和失业、下岗人员的退休及养老金待遇问题。

In order to examine whether the delay of retirement age system is consistent with insurants' decision of retirement,this paper adopts multinomial Logit model to analyze the effect of social pension insurance on participants' decision of retirement. It is found that,when replacement ratio increases by 1%,male participants prefer to retire on time while 6.15% female participants are willing to retire later,which means the system is only partly incentive to some female insurants. And the fewer number of annual up- adjustments of pension is,the higher the probability of willingness for participants to delay retirement age will be. In addition,a participant's preference to delay retirement is more sensitive to change of replacement ratio than the number of up- adjustments. Accordingly,as for female participants,the replacement ratio should be raised up while the up- adjustments of pension should be decreased. Refinement of salary and pension increasing mechanism would also help and more considerations regarding retirement and pension should be given to freelances or jobless participants.