货币政策取向与货币政策动态调整——对历年《中国货币政策执行报告》的经验研究

Monetary Policy Stance and Dynamic Adjustment: An Empirical Study of China Monetary Policy Reports

借助2001年第一季度至2014年第四季度《中国货币政策执行报告》,构建起一个货币政策取向衡量框架,然后在此基础上,采用有序选择模型,实证分析了中国货币政策的动态调整行为。研究结果表明,区分货币政策目标重要性的模型能较好地刻画中国货币政策取向与产出缺口、通货膨胀缺口之间的动态调整关系;中国货币政策的调控方向和力度会随着宏观经济走势而进行改变,即当通货膨胀缺口为正且较大时,物价稳定便成为政策优先关注的目标,而当产出缺口较小或为负缺口时,经济增长就成为货币政策优先关注的目标。

By analyzing the quarterly China Monetary Policy Reports from 2001 to2014,this paper constructs a monetary policy stance measure framework. Then,considering the importance of the policy objectives,this paper empirically analyzes the dynamic adjustment of Chinese monetary policy by utilizing ordered choice model. The results show that the model that distinguishes the importance of the policy objectives can better characterize the dynamic relationship between monetary policy and output gap as well as inflation gap. The People's Bank of China will change the adjustment intensity and direction of the monetary policy according to the macroeconomic situation. When the inflation gap becomes larger,price stability will be the priority of monetary policy goals. When the output gap becomes smaller or negative,economic growth will be the priority of monetary policy goals.