包容性金融发展与个人职业选择及收入变动:理论与经验研究

Inclusive Financial Development,Occupational Choice and Income Change:Theoretical and Empirical Evidences

在个人职业选择模型框架下,引入包容性金融发展理论分析包容性金融发展如何影响个人的职业选择及收入变动得出:随着包容性金融发展水平的提升,包容性金融发展的减贫效应和人力资本积累效应将逐渐显现,雇员比例会出现先下降后上升的U型过程,自雇劳动者比例则表现为先上升后下降的倒U型;与此同时,中低收入者收入逐渐提高,居民收入差距不断缩小。在理论分析的基础上,基于2004年、2006年、2009年和2011年CHNS相关数据,运用Logistic模型和分位数回归模型两种方法经验检验了理论分析。

Based on model of occupational choice,this paper introduces inclusive financial development to study how inclusive financial development influences occupational choice and income level. Theoretical analysis suggests that when the inclusive financial development improves,the poverty reduction effect and human capital accumulation effect will emerge. There will be a U- shaped relationship between inclusive financial development and the fraction of workers,and an inverted U- shaped relationship between inclusive financial development and the fraction of self- employees,which actually benefits the medium and low- income people and thus bridge the gap between different income levels to some extent. Further empirical analysis is made based on relevant CHNS data from 2004,2006,2009 and 2011. Logistic model and Quantile Regression model are used to test theoretical propositions. The effect of inclusive financial development on income inequality is examined and the results show that inclusive finance development has a significant effect on occupational choice and the level of personal income. Some suggestions on narrowing the income gap are also given at the end.