中国普惠金融发展的分布动态与空间趋同研究

Dynamic and Spatial Convergent of Distribution of China's Inclusive Finance Development

通过构建普惠金融指数的综合评价模型,基于熵值法测算出2004~2013年中国省域普惠金融发展水平,并运用Kernel密度估计及空间Markov链等非参数估计方法对中国普惠金融发展的分布动态及趋同演变进行研究的结果表明,中国普惠金融存在明显的多极分化格局和"俱乐部收敛"现象;全国普惠金融整体呈小幅下降趋势,东部地区越来越发散,中西部地区越来越收敛;考虑空间效应时,较高水平邻居能通过空间扩散效应间接带动邻近地区的发展。

By building a comprehensive evaluation model of inclusive financial index,this paper tries to evaluate inclusive financial development level in different provinces in China during 2004-2013 based on the entropy method. By adopting nonparametric estimation methods,such as Kernel density estimation and Spatial Markov chains,it tries to analyze the dynamic distribution,convergence and evolution of inclusive financial development in China. The results show that: first,there is obvious multi-stage differentiation and club convergence phenomenon in inclusive finance in our country; second,the development levels of inclusive finance in 30 provinces have generally showed a slightly downward trend,with eastern region being increasingly divergent and other parts being increasingly convergent;third,while taking spatial effect into account,high-level neighbor can indirectly drive the development of neighboring regions.