经济发达地区农村建设用地供求平衡演变特征——以宁波市为例

Evolution Characteristics of Supply and Demand Balance of Rural Construction Land in Developed Regions——A Case Study of Ningbo City

基于供求分析模型、脱钩模型、土地利用转移矩阵和建设项目供地分析,揭示经济发达地区城乡转型过程中农村建设用地供求平衡演变特征。研究显示:(1)2010—2015年,宁波市农村建设用地供求平衡演变特征表现为强负脱钩模式,供求不平衡加剧;(2)农村新增建设项目需求多元化且主要来源于外部需求,主要通过增量供给方式满足;(3)农村建设用地增加主要是因为工业用地和房地产开发向农村地区延伸,农村房屋拆迁和征地成本等地价因素对于农村建设用地供求平衡影响显著。以上结果进一步表明,未来农村建设用地合理供给,农村人均建设用地标准的严格控制和建设项目用地的批后管理是土地管理的关键。

The purpose of this study is to explore the evolution characteristics of supply and demand balance of rural construction land in the process of urban and rural transformation in developed regions. Methods employed include supply and demand analysis model, decoupling model, land use transformation matrix and construction land supply analysis. The results show that: 1) Evolution characteristic of supply and demand balance of rural construction land in Ningbo is strong negative decoupling, and the imbalance of supply and demand is intensified, from 2010 to 2015. 2) The demands for new construction projects in rural areas are diversified and mainly come from external demands, which are met by incremental supply principally. 3) The increase of rural construction land is mainly due to the extension of industrial land and real estate development to rural areas, and the land price factors such as rural house demolition and land acquisition cost have significant influence on the supply and demand balance of rural construction land. Thus, we suggest that the key to land management is the strict control of rural per capita construction land standard and the postapproval management of construction project land, which can rationalize the supply of rural construction land in the future.