高房价背景下大中城市商品住宅库存压力——基于PSR框架的评价与分析

Inventory Pressure of Large and Medium-sized Cities’ Commodity Housing in Context of High Housing Prices:PSR-based Evaluation and Analysis

在当前中国城市高房价背景下,基于'压力—状态—响应(Pressure-State-Response,PSR)'框架,对35个大中城市各项商品住宅库存压力指标进行测度,并进一步通过GIS工具和多种不平等指数分别对区域间、城市间差异进行分析,为城市住房调控和供给侧改革提供决策依据。结果表明:(1)库存压力综合因子得分与三个子系统的协调度并不呈正相关关系且评价结果不均等程度较大;(2)城市级别越高,综合因子得分、协调度得分越低,而东、中、西部地区综合因子得分不均等程度总体呈现阶梯下降趋势;(3)库存'状态'指标得分较大的城市大多是房价与房价收入比相对更低的城市;(4)通过'压力—状态—响应'得分的排序组合分类可以有效对不同城市表现差异进行甄别。最终结论:区域与城市间库存压力、状态与响应的差异性决定了因城施策,采取差异化政策导向与调控措施是构建房地产平稳健康发展长效机制的必然途径。

The purpose of this study is based on the'Pressure-State-Response(PSR)'framework to measure the inventory pressure indicators of urban commodity housing of 35 cities in large and medium-sized Chinese cities in the context of high current housing prices.Further,our analysis offers a basis for better policy controlling and decisionmaking in supply-side structural reform of urban housing by heterogeneity analysis of inventory pressure in different cities and regions.Research methods of this study includes principal component analysis,inequality index analysis and GIS-based spatial analysis.The results indicated that:(1)There is no positive correlation between the comprehensive factor score of inventory pressure and the coordination degree of three subsystems,and the evaluation results are unequal.(2)The higher level of city,the lower score of comprehensive factor and coordination degree,and the inequality degree of comprehensive factor overall shows a downward trend of ladder from the east to the west.(3)The higher score of inventory'State'indicators are mostly with lower housing prices and HPIR(Housing Price Income Ratio).(4)Based on the'Pressure-State-Response'score sorting and combinations,it can effectively classify different cities’performance.This paper concludes that the regional and inter-city differences of inventory pressure of commodity housing in performance of'Pressure','State'and'Response'asks the local government to conduct differentiation policy orientation and controlling measures,which is the inevitable way to establish a long-term and healthy development mechanism of real estate.