典型喀斯特城市水资源利用与经济发展关系分析——以铜仁市为例

Analysis of Water Use and Economic Development in Typical Karst Cities:A Case Study of Tongren City

选取典型喀斯特城市铜仁市为研究区,基于经济数据和水资源数据,运用匹配度、水资源生态足迹、'P-E-R'区域匹配模型和LMDI指数分解模型,分析揭示水资源利用和经济发展的主要因素之间的定量关系。结果发现:铜仁市人均用水量总体逐年在下降,而人均GDP逐年在提高,其匹配度2011年达最大后逐步下降。水资源生态足迹总体波动上升但程度不明显,而水资源生态承载力和水资源生态盈余较高且受降水影响波动明显,历年万元GDP水资源生态足迹明显下降。农业用水、居民生活用水、工业用水和生态环境补水的用水比重由高到低,水资源生态压力指数较小且趋势与水资源生态盈余一致。水资源经济承载力富裕而水资源经济人口承载力不足,对水资源生态足迹变化贡献度技术效应最大且为负效应、经济效应次之且为正效应、人口效应和结构效应起到了一定的作用。

This paper takes Tongren city(typical karst city) as study area to explore the quantitative relationship between water consumption and the main factors of economic development in karst cities through the matching degree, ecological footprint of water resources, 'P-E-R' regional matching model and LMDI method, based on economic data and water resources data. The results show that the per capita water consumption is decreasing but the ratio of per capita GDP is increasing year by year in Tongren City. The matching degree gradually declines after it peaks in 2011. The ecological footprint of water resources rises, but not obvious. Both of the ecological carrying capacity of water resources and the ecological surplus of water resources are higher and affected by precipitation obviously. The water resources ecological footprint of ten thousand Yuan GDP presents an apparent decline. The proportion of water consumption in agriculture,residents living, industry and ecological environment water replenishment reduce successively. Ecological pressure index of water resources is small and its trend is consistent with the ecological surplus of water resources. Economic carrying capacity of water resources is rich. However, the economic population bearing capacity of water resources is insufficient.In terms of the contribution degree of changing ecological footprint of water resources, the technology is the most significant negative influence, while economic play an important role in positive effects, and the effects of population and structural have played a certain role. This study can provide suggestions on the rational allocation and utilization of water resources, optimizing the industrial structure and adjusting the direction of industry in the southwest karst region.