生态位视角下中美经济权力关系演变

Evolution of Economic Power Relationships between China and the US Based on Niche

大国间地缘政治经济博弈的焦点在于权力。文章基于生态位理论和生态位关系模型,选取GDP总量、制造业增加值、商品贸易额、FDI流出总量和高科技出口额5个经济权力资源要素,从生态位宽度、生态位叠加度和生态位竞争关系3个方面定量测算了2000—2016年中国和美国的经济权力生态位关系演变态势。结果表明:(1)与美国相比,研究期内中国经济权力生态位宽度稳步上升;(2)中美两国彼此对对方的经济权力生态位叠加度均呈现稳步上升趋势,中国对美国的整体经济权力生态位叠加度从2014年起高于美国对中国的叠加度;(3)中美两国经济权力生态位竞争关系指数呈现出'W'型变化轨迹,即2000—2004年生态位竞争关系指数下降,2004—2008年指数上升,2008—2010年指数下降,2010年后指数逐渐上升。这在一定程度上反映了中国和美国经济权力生态位关系动态变化。

The focus on geopolitical competition among great powers is the power. Some western scholars believe that the increasing economic influence in China has not only made an intense competition with the US global power in space,but also changes the niche rankings of international power formed after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Therefore,how to analyze the changes of economic power niche between China and the US from the perspective of globe, has become the key research question. Based on the theory of niche and ecological niche relationship model, this paper estimates economic power niche breadth, niche overlap and niche competition by adopting the data of GDP, added value on manufacturing, merchandise trade, FDI outflows and high-technology export value of China and the US from 2000 to2016. The results show that: 1)Compared with the US, the niche breadth of the economic power in China has steadily risen. 2)The niche overlap index of the economic power both in China and the US has showed a rising trend. The Chinese niche overlap index of the economic power to the US triumphed over that of the US to China after 2014. 3)The competition relationship of economic power niche between China and the US has showed a 'W' shape variation. Namely,the niche competition index between China and the US decreased from 2000 to 2004, the index increased in 2004-2008 and declined in 2008-2010, and the index rose after 2010, which reflects dynamic changes in the niche competitive relationship of the economic power between China and the US.