空间收敛视角下中国城市土地开发强度演变特征

Evolution Characteristics of Urban Land Development Intensity in China from the Perspective of Spatial Convergence

利用收敛模型对中国大陆30个省区2006—2016年城市土地开发强度空间差异的演进特征进行定量刻画,并在此基础上提出针对性的政策启示。结果表明:(1)无论是全国层面、区域层面,还是省域层面,城市土地开发强度在研究期内总体上都呈上升趋势;(2)除东北地区外,全国层面和东部、中部、西部地区城市土地开发强度的空间差异表现出σ收敛特征,σ系数在考察期内都呈波动下降趋势,区域间城市土地开发强度的总体差异逐渐缩小。同时,全国层面和东部、中部和西部地区城市土地开发强度的地区分布还存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,东北地区存在绝对β收敛,但不存在条件β收敛;(3)土地资源禀赋、人口规模、城市化水平、经济发展水平和固定资产投资是影响城市土地开发强度的主要因素,但不同变量对不同区域城市土地开发强度空间收敛过程的影响程度并不一致;(4)应该以社会福利最大化作为确定城市建设用地规模的重要参照,通过规划约束、市场引导等抑制城市建设用地面积的无序扩张。同时探索城市存量土地资源价值核算理论和方法,指导城市用地结构调整及新增建设用地空间配置。

The convergence model is used to quantitatively describe the evolution characteristics of spatial differences in urban land development intensity in 30 provinces and autonomous regions of China's Mainland from 2006 to 2016. On this basis, the paper puts forward some policy implications. The results showed that: 1) Whatever it is at the national level,regional level or provincial level, urban land development intensity generally increased during the study period. 2) The spatial difference of urban land development intensity showed the characteristics of σ convergence except the northeast region, and it showed a trend of decline on the σ coefficient. The differences of urban land development intensity between regions narrow over time. At the same time, the regional distribution of China, east, central and western regions of the urban land development intensity shows absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence, it shows absolute βconvergence in the northeast region except conditional β convergence. 3)The main influence factors of the urban land development intensity are land resources endowment, population size, urbanization level, level of economic development and fixed assets investment. However, the influence level of each variables on the spatial convergence process of urban land development intensity in different regions is not consistent.4) The government should determine the scale of urban construction land based on the maximization of social welfare, inhibit the sprawl of urban construction land area by planning constraints, market guide. At the same time, it explores the value accounting method and theory of urban stock land resources to guide the urban land structure and the space allocation of new construction land.