需求导向下养老特色村空间选址评价——以浙北地区为例

Spatial Location Evaluation of Aged Care Villages Based on Demand Orientation:A Case Study of North Zhejiang

养老特色村一般为市场选择、自发形成,是对接城市老人养老需求的产物,因此养老特色村的布点规划应根据使用者的需求意愿进行空间选址。在文献分析、实地调研、专家意见咨询的基础上,以使用主体需求为导向,以供给主体原生性为标准,构建以四大准则、八大要素、15个指标为重点的特色村空间选址要素评价体系,并根据需求调查确定指标权重与评估标准。以浙江省北部地区为例进行实证研究,发现:(1)结果与现实状态相符,本选址评价体系准确性较高;(2)适建区(≥7)占研究范围的33.67%,空间自相关性较高,呈大量集聚、少量分散状态;(3)适宜度评价均值第一梯队的县市山林资源丰富,第二、第三梯队则水系资源丰富,可见城市老人对山林资源的需求度更高;(4)多数县市适建区重心与地理重心不重合,标准差椭圆的扁率、角度差均较大,县市内适建区集聚性显著。

The aged care villages are generally chosen by market and spontaneously form, which are the product of the needs of the elderly in urban areas. Therefore, the layout planning of the aged care villages should be based on the users’ needs and wishes. On the basis of literature analysis, field investigation and expert consultation, this paper takes the users’ demands as the guide and takes the resource primary as the standard, constructs the aged care village location evaluation system with four criteria, eight elements and 15 indexes, and determines the index weight and evaluation standard according to the demand adjustment. Taking the north Zhejiang as an example, we find that:(1) the result is consistent with the reality, indicating that the location evaluation system has high accuracy.(2) The suitable construction area(≥7)accounts for 33.67% of the research scope, and the spatial autocorrelation is very high, which shows a large amount of agglomeration and a small amount of dispersion state.(3) The counties and cities belonging to the first echelon of suitability evaluation are rich in mountain resources, the second and third echelons are rich in water resources. It is obvious that the urban elderly have higher demand for mountain resources.(4) The center of the suitable construction areas of most counties and cities does not coincide with the geographical gravity center, and the differences of the oblate and angle of the standard deviation ellipse are large, indicating that the construction area in the counties and cities has a significant concentration.