制度因素与我国对外直接投资区位关系研究——“一带一路”倡议的调节效应

Institutional Factors and China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment:The Adjustment Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative

利用2009—2016年我国向"一带一路"沿线52个国家OFDI面板数据,采用主成分分析法构建经济、政治和法律制度因素指标,并建立面板数据模型综合运用固定效应检验方法和2SLS方法研究"一带一路"倡议对制度因素与我国在沿线国家OFDI区位选择关系的调节效应。研究发现:(1)"一带一路"倡议对我国向沿线国家OFDI区位选择存在促进效应;(2)经济制度因素对我国向沿线国家OFDI区位选择存在抑制效应,政治制度因素对其存在促进效应,而法律制度因素对其没有影响;(3)"一带一路"倡议对经济、政治和法律制度因素与我国向沿线国家OFDI区位选择均存在调节效应,且均为干扰作用。最后,就如何根据"一带一路"倡议调节效应合理选择我国在沿线国家OFDI区位提出政策建议。

According to China’s OFDI panel data of 52 countries along the Belt and Road from 2009 to 2016 and applying the principal component method, fixed effect test method and 2SLS method, this article constructs the indexes of the economic, political, and legal institutional factors of the B&R countries and analyses the adjustment effect of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) on institutional factors and the location of China’s OFDI in B&R countries. Results show that: 1)BRI has an accelerating effect on location choice of China’s OFDI in B&R countries. 2) Economic institutional factor has inhibitory effect on the location choice of China’s OFDI in B&R countries, and political institutional factor has a promoting effect on it, legal institutional factor has no influence on it;3) BRI has adjustment effects and interference effects on economic, political, and legal institutional factors and location choice of China’s OFDI in B&R countries.Finally, we put forward some policy suggestions on how to make good use of the adjustment effects of BRI to appropriately select the location of OFDI in B&R countries.