江苏省粮食生产时空格局及其驱动因素

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Factors of Grain Production in Jiangsu Province

以1996—2015年江苏省粮食产量为指标,采用Theil指数、空间分析相关方法和地理加权回归分析等方法,探究江苏省粮食生产的时空格局及驱动因素。结果表明:(1)江苏省粮食生产的区域差异总体呈扩大态势,分解后的组内差异对粮食生产总差异的贡献度高于组间差异,但组间差异对粮食生产总差异的贡献度在逐渐增大。(2)粮食生产全局上存在显著的正相关关系,局部经历了由随机分布到集聚分布的过程,空间格局呈现较为明显的层次结构特征。(3)粮食生产重心在119.3827°E～119.5709°E,32.9790°N～33.2299°N之间变动,总体上向西北方向移动,粮食生产大体呈"西北—东南"的空间分布格局。(4)粮食生产驱动因素的非均衡联动局域性特征显著,化肥使用量、乡村从业人员和农业机械总动力对粮食生产具有正向作用,人口数量和人均GDP回归系数高值区主要集中在苏北地区,乡村从业人员和农业机械总动力回归系数高值区经历了由北向南的转移过程;化肥使用量回归系数高值区主要集中在苏南地区,向北部逐渐递减。

As one of the most vital grain production areas in China, Jiangsu Province plays an important role in guaranteeing Chinese grain security. Taking the grain production as a measure index from 1996 to 2015 in Jiangsu Province, this paper makes a quantitative comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal pattern and driving factors of grain production in Jiangsu Province by using the Theil index, spatial analysis and geographical weighted regression analysis.Results showed that: 1) The overall difference of grain production in Jiangsu Province is expanding, the contribution degree in the group about grain production differences outclasses the betweengroup after decomposition of Theil index.However, the contribution between regional differences on the overall differences is gradually increasing. 2) There was a significant positive correlation between the grain production in Jiangsu Province and there were significant spatial agglomeration patterns in grain production, partially undergoing the process from random distribution to concentrated distribution, and the spatial pattern showed obvious characteristics of the hierarchical structure. 3) The gravity center of grain production was between 119.3827°E-119.5709°E, 32.9790°N-33.2299°N and moved to the northwest. The spatial distribution of grain production presented a northwest-southeast pattern. 4) The driving factors of different regions showed localization characteristic of non-stationary connection. Consumption of chemical fertilizers, total employment in rural and total power of agricultural machinery have a positive effect on grain production. High value area of regression coefficient of the population and per capita GDP are mainly concentrated in the northern Jiangsu. High value area of regression coefficient on rural workers and the total power of agricultural machinery moved from the northern Jiangsu to the southern, while the consumption of chemical fertilizers is mainly concentrated in the Southern Jiangsu and gradually decreases toward the north.