零售额作用下香港入境旅游对物价的多元影响

Influence of Inbound Tourism on Consumer Price under Effects of Retails in Hong Kong

为分析入境旅游发展是如何在带动零售额增长的同时对旅游地消费物价产生影响的,研究引入零售额为变量建立了一个新的多元模型研究入境旅游对消费物价的影响,采用1999—2016年的季度数据,利用Pearson相关性分析、计量经济学非平稳数据分析和Granger因果检验分析等方法从多个角度分析了香港入境游客、零售额和消费物价之间的多元关系。研究结果表明:(1)入境旅游、零售额和消费物价之间存在显著的相关性和稳定的协整均衡关系;相比零售额,入境旅游对物价的贡献度更高。(2)从Granger因果关系分析看,入境旅游必然带动零售额并影响消费物价。(3)入境旅游对消费物价产生的影响小于零售额对消费物价的影响,因此香港政府应客观看待入境旅游对物价的影响程度,做好宣传和承载力提升等工作,以促进香港旅游业更加平衡、充分和健康地发展。

In order to analyze how inbound tourism development drives economic growth and significantly influences the local consumer prices, this paper establishes a new theoretical model to test the relationship between inbound tourism,local retails and consumer prices on the basis of seasonal data from 1999 to 2016 By the method of Pearson correlation analysis, Cointegration analysis and Granger causality test analysis. The results showed that: 1) There is correlation and stable long-term equilibrium relationship between inbound tourism, local retails and consumer prices;the influence of inbound tourism on consumer prices is higher than the retails. 2) According to the results of Granger causality test analysis, inbound tourism is bound to promote retails sales and finally affect consumer prices. 3) It has a smaller influence of inbound tourism on consumer prices than the retails on consumer prices, Hongkong government should objectively look at the impact of inbound tourism on consumer prices, do propaganda work and improve the capacity, promote cultural fusion which accelerates the balaced and healthy development of Hongkong inbound tourism.