金融危机前后全球产业贸易转移定量测度分析

Quantitative Measurement of Global Industry Transfer Influenced by Global Financial Crisis

2008年全球金融危机以来,全球产业贸易转移格局已经悄然发生变化。文章在严谨界定产业贸易转移概念的前提下,运用区域间投入产出技术系统构建了产业贸易转移的定量测度模型,进而对全球金融危机前后主要国家和地区间产业贸易转移格局变化进行了定量研究。主要发现有:(1)中国虽然仍是全球最大的产业净转入国,但制造业向中国转移的规模大幅减缓。(2)欧盟、美国、印度等地区或国家逐渐成为全球主要产业贸易转移目的地,且以服务业为主。(3)采掘业开始向美国、欧盟等发达地区转移。

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the spatial pattern of the world industrial trade had gradually changed.Based on the strict definition of the concept of industrial trade transfer, combining with the multi-regional input-output tables, this paper rebuilds the measurement model of industrial trade transfer, then conducts a quantitative study on the changes in the pattern of industrial trade transfer between major countries or regions before and after the global financial crisis. The results show that as follows: 1) Although China is still the world’s largest net importer of the industry, the transfer scale of manufacturing to China has slowed down significantly. 2) The EU, the United States, India have gradually become the world’s major industrial trade transfer destinations, which are dominated by service industry. 3) The extractive industry is transferring to developed regions such as the United States and the European Union.