摘要
文章运用偏离—份额分析、基尼系数、区位熵以及面板回归模型探索山东省污染密集型产业时空格局演变特征及驱动机理,得出以下结论:(1)2000—2015年,污染密集型产业产值占山东省工业总产值的比重为42.06%~47.85%,发展趋势整体呈"S型"增长曲线,增长速度呈先上升后波动下降的趋势,其中有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、医药制造业、化学原料和化学制品制造业等行业增长幅度最大。(2)近15年来,山东省污染密集型产业的基尼系数呈先上升后下降的"倒U型"曲线,产业呈先集聚后扩散的态势,产业细分行业的集聚和扩散态势呈现出明显的行业差异。山东省省会济南市以及东部经济发达地区的污染密集型产业产值占工业总产值比重呈逐年下降趋势,西部和南部的德州、聊城、滨州、菏泽和临沂等经济欠发达地区污染密集型产业产值占工业总产值比重呈逐年上升趋势,省域内部存在污染密集型产业转移现象。(3)环境规制、劳动成本、国际贸易、路径依赖和基础设施等是山东省污染密集型产业空间演变的影响因素。
The spatial evolution of the pollution-intensive industries has become an important factor affecting the sustainable development of the region. Scientific analysis of the spatial evolution and influencing mechanism of the pollution-intensive industries is of great significance for adjusting the overall layout of the pollution-intensive industries and promoting the sustainable development of the region. The study explored the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of pollution-intensive industries in Shandong Province using shift-share analysis,Gini coefficient, location quotient and panel regression model. The conclusions are as follows:(1) From 2000 to 2015, the pollution-intensive industries accounted for 42.06%-47.85% of the industrial output value of Shandong Province and its development overall presented the trend of S-shaped growth curve. The growth rate increased firstly and then decreased.The higher growth rate industries are the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, pharmaceutical industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry;(2) In the past 15 years, the Gini coefficient of pollution-intensive industries in Shandong Province showed an inverted 'U' curve which firstly increased and then decreased, indicating that the industries showed the trend that is firstly clustered and then diffused and it had a significant difference among the subdivision industries. The proportion of the pollution-intensive industries in the industrial output value had been declining year by year in Jinan City and the economically developed areas of eastern Shandong Province. In contrast, it rose year by year in in less developed areas of the western and southern Shandong Province, such as Dezhou, Liaocheng, Binzhou, Heze and Linyi, it showed the phenomenon of the transfer of polluting industries;(3) Environmental regulation, labor cost, international trade, path dependence and infrastructure are the factors that influence the spatial evolution of pollution-intensive industries in Shandong Province.
作者
王亚平
曹欣欣
程钰
任建兰
WANG Yaping;CAO Xinxin;CHENG Yu;REN Jianlan(College of Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期130-139,共10页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41871121
41501124)
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2015DQ008)
中国博士后基金面上项目(40411592)
山东省高等学校科技计划项目(J15LH07)
关键词
污染密集型产业
空间演变
影响机理
山东省
pollution-intensive industries
spatial evolution
influencing mechanism
Shandong Province