中部六省能源消费碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions in Six Provinces of Central China

采用2005—2016年中部六省能源消费碳排放面板数据,对其能源消费碳排放时空演变特征及其收敛性进行分析,在此基础上运用LMDI分解方法,探索产出规模、能源强度、产业结构、人口规模及能源结构等因素对中部六省能源消费碳排放的影响,并分析各影响因素的空间特征。结果表明:(1)各省能源消费碳排放均存在收敛,且收敛于各自的稳态水平,各省之间的差异短时间内不会消失;(2)除能源结构变化对中部六省碳排放表现为负效应之外,其余五个因素对其碳排放均表现为正效应,各效应按累积贡献率绝对值大小依次是:产出规模效应、能源强度效应、产业结构效应、人口规模效应和能源结构效应;(3)各因素对中部六省能源碳排放影响均存在明显的空间差异,其中产出规模扩大对湖南能源碳排放拉动作用最大,能源强度下降对湖南能源碳排放的抑制作用最大,产业结构变化仅对山西能源碳排放起到抑制作用,人口规模变化仅对安徽省能源碳排放起到抑制作用,能源结构变动对安徽、河南以及湖北能源碳排放表现为正效应。

Using the panel data of energy consumption carbon emissions from the sixcentral provinces in 2005-2016, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and convergence of energy consumption carbon emissions are analyzed.On this basis, the LMDI decomposition method is used to explore the impact of factors such as output scale, energy intensity,industrial structure, population size and energy structure on carbon emissions of energy consumption in the six central provinces, and analyze the spatial characteristics of each influencing factor.The results show that: 1) Carbon emissions of energy consumption in all provinces are convergent and converge to their respective steady-state levels, and the differences between provinces will not disappear in a short time;2) In addition to the negative effects of energy structure changes on carbon emissions in the six central provinces, the other five factors have positive effects on their carbon emissions. The absolute value of each effect in terms of cumulative contribution rate is: output scale effect, energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, population size effect and energy structure effect;3) There are obvious spatial differences in the impact of various factors on energy carbon emissions in the six central provinces. The expansion of output scale has the largest pulling impact on energy carbon emissions in Hunan Province. The decline in energy intensity has a greatest inhibitory effect on energy carbon emissions in Hunan Province. Structural changes only inhibits energy carbon emissions in Shanxi Province. Population size changes only inhibits energy carbon emissions in Anhui Province.Energy structure changes have positive effects on energy carbon emissions in Anhui, Henan and Hubei provinces.