经济区规划促进了西部地区经济增长吗?——基于合成控制法的研究

Can the Policy of the Economic Zone Promote the Western Economic Growth? Research Based on Synthetic Control Method

文章采用合成控制法,基于经济区规划的政策实验,选取北部湾经济区和关中—天水经济区为研究对象,从整体和组成城市两个方面评估其对西部地区的政策效应。结果表明:①从整体上看,经济区政策对区域的经济增长具有正向的作用,但政策效应存在波动;②经济区各个组成城市的政策效应存在较大差别,经济区政策对经济区核心城市的经济增长产生抑制作用;③分城市实证研究结果的差异性表明,基于自身的资源禀赋、区位条件、发展现状和政治背景,经济区中的城市的经济发展并不一定按照经济区规划中设想的情况,尤其对于非本行政区域的城市,忽视行政区划所带来的政治壁垒的结果就是经济区政策的负向作用。

Based on the policy experiment of the planning of the economic zone and the synthetic control method,this paper selects the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone as the research object and evaluates the policy effect on the western region.The results show that:1)from an overall perspective,the policy of the economic zone has a positive effect on the economic growth of the region,but there is a fluctuation in the policy effect;2)the policy effect of each constituent city in the economic zone is different,but the economic zone policy has a restraining effect on the economic growth of the core city of the economic zone;3)the difference between the results of the urban empirical study shows that the economic development of the cities in the economic zone does not necessarily follow the Economic Zone Planning based on its own resource endowment,location conditions,development status and political background,especially for the city in the non-administrative region.The result of neglecting administration barrier is that in the economic zone policy plays the negative role.