城市规模的分布及演进特征——基于18个国家统计数据的实证研究

Distribution and Evolution of City Size:Empirical Research Based on Statistical Data from 18 Countries

基于1990、2000和2010年中国等18个国家的城市人口数据,采用统计分布检验、马尔可夫转移矩阵等方法,分析各国城市规模的分布特征和动态演进特征。同时以中国为例,探讨空间因素在城市规模演进过程中所产生的作用。结果表明:①欧洲国家近似服从齐普夫定律的比例高于亚洲与美洲,中国的城市规模分布逐渐接近齐普夫定律的理想状态。②从城市之间的动态变化来看,全球范围城市的流动性水平呈下降趋势,而发展中国家的流动性水平普遍高于发达国家,大部分国家的城市整体呈现向上流动的特征。其中,中国的城市动态演进由收敛增长转变为发散增长。③城市增长表现出不同空间分布特征的背后,区域环境起到重要作用:较差的区域环境对城市的增长造成负面影响,优越的区域环境有利于低等级城市的规模增长,但部分中高等级城市的增长将因为城市间服务功能的高度竞争而面临阻力。

Based on the urban population data from 18 countries in 1990,2000 and 2010,this paper empirically analyzes the statistical distribution characteristics and urban evolution by comprehensively using statistical distribution test and Markov transition matrix.It uses the spatial Markov chain method to explore the role of spatial factors in urban growth of China.The main results are obtained as follows:1)The proportion of European countries that approximately follow the Zipf’s Law is higher than that of Asia and the America,and Chinese city size distribution is gradually approaching the ideal pattern of Zipf’s Law.2)In the aspect of dynamic changes among cities,urban mobility level has declined at the worldwide level,the level in developing countries is generally higher than in developed countries,and most countries as a whole show an upward mobility features.Among them,the Chinese urban convergent growth transforms to divergent growth.3)Behind the different spatial distribution patterns in urban growth,the regional environment plays an important role:poor regional environment has a negative impact on urban growth,favorable regional environment is conducive to increasing growth of low-tier cities,but some high-tier cities will face resistance because of the highly competitive intercity service functions.