环境管制是否促进了城市产业结构优化?——基于“两控区”政策的准自然实验

Could Environmental Control Optimize Urban Industrial Structure?Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment of "Two Control Zones" Policy in China

环境管制对于产业升级的影响具有显著的空间分异特征。文章采用准自然实验法,考察1998年实施的'两控区'(指酸雨控制区或者SO2污染控制区)环境管制政策对我国149个城市产业结构的影响效应。结果表明,'两控区'政策显著推动城市产业结构由第二产业向服务性行业转换,外资投资及人力资源水平也有积极的正向影响。从区域空间分异看,'两控区'政策对东部、中部城市的产业结构优化有正向推动作用,东部地区的影响效果最为显著,而西部和东北的'两控区'政策对城市产业结构变动却呈显著负向影响。再以2010年作为时间节点,考察更为严格环境管制条件下的政策效果,发现只有东部城市的环境规制促进产业结构转向服务性行业,验证东部'污染光环'假说。

Environment regulation shows a significant spatial heterogeneity characteristic on the industrial upgrading.This paper uses the quasi-natural experiment to check the effects of'two control zones'(TCZ,for short,referring to the'acid rain control area and the sulfur dioxide pollution control area division plan')environment regulation policy,which was implemented in Chinese 149 cities in 1998.Taking these 149 cities as study group,and 174 non-TCZ cities as control group,it sets up a difference-in-difference model to compare the effects of TCZ before(1994-1998)and after(1999-2004)the policy.The result shows that TCZ policy,the foreign investment and human resources significantly promotes the transformation of urban industrial structure from the secondary industry to the service industry.From the perspective of region,the policy positively promotes the optimization of industrial structure in the cities of eastern and central China,while has a negative impact on those cities of western and northeastern regions.Then,this study takes 2010 as another time node to examine the effect under the background of more stringent environmental regulations.This policy only improves the industrial structure in the cities of eastern China,verifying the'pollution halo hypothesis'of eastern China.The conclusion is that environmental regulation policies has more effects on spatial differentiation of industrial structure change in different regional cities of China.