中国区域金融发展关联网络的构建与分析:1978—2018

Construction and Analysis of China’s Regional Financial Development Linkage Network:1978-2018

文章以1978—2018年中国大陆31个省(市、区)的金融发展数据为样本,通过社会网络方法构建中国区域金融发展的关联网络,并通过块模型和QAP模型分析关联网络的特征。结果表明:①在930个可能存在关联关系的网络中,共有765个关联关系,区域金融发展网络的互联互通程度较高;②可将31个省(市、区)划分为4个板块,板块Ⅰ为净溢出板块,板块Ⅱ和板块Ⅳ为中介板块,板块Ⅳ的中介角色更为突出,板块Ⅲ为净受益板块;③虽然金融发展相对较高的板块Ⅰ、板块Ⅱ对欠发达的板块Ⅳ存在溢出效应,但从现实来看,溢出效应并未缩小金融发展差距;④如果区域之间在经济基础上的差距过大,金融发展存在关联性的概率会降低。最后,从如何充分发挥溢出效应、提升资金效率给出应对金融不平衡不充分发展的政策建议。

This paper takes the financial development data of 31 provinces from 1978 to 2018 as samples,constructs the association network of China’s regional financial development through social network method,and analyses the characteristics of the association network through Block Model and Quadratic Assignment Procedure(QAP)Model.The results show that:1)There are 765 correlations in 930 networks with possible correlations,and the interconnection degree of regional financial development network is higher;2)31 provinces can be divided into four plates,plateⅠis net spillover plate,plateⅡand plateⅣare intermediary plate,plateⅣis more intermediary role.Outstanding,plateⅢis the net benefit plate;3)Although the relatively high financial development plate has spillover effect on the underdeveloped plate,in reality,the spillover effect has not narrowed the gap in financial development;4)If the gap between regions on the basis of economy is too large,the probability of financial development being related will be reduced.Finally,for dealing with the insufficient and imbalance development of finance,this paper gives policy recommendations to improve the efficiency of funds and spillover effect.