“一带一路”沿线中小型旅游城市经济系统脆弱性研究——以敦煌市为例

Vulnerability Assessment of Economic System of Small and Medium-sized Tourist City Along One Belt and One Road——A Case Study of Dunhuang City

本文以"一带一路"沿线的敦煌为例,通过构建城市经济系统脆弱性评估模型和中小型旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,对敦煌市经济系统的脆弱性进行了定量分析和评价;通过多元线性回归分析,揭示了"敏感性"及"应对能力"与敦煌市经济系统脆弱性之间的关系,并对敦煌市经济系统脆弱性影响因素进行了定量分析。分析结果表明:1敦煌市经济系统"敏感性"、"应对能力"和"脆弱性"指数的变化具有明显的阶段性特征。第一阶段各指标变化趋势相对平稳,第二阶段"敏感性"和"脆弱性"指数均呈现出在波动中逐渐下降的趋势;2敦煌市经济系统的脆弱性为"内生性结构累积式脆弱",敏感性对敦煌市经济系统脆弱性的影响更为显著;3教育经费支出占地方财政支出比重、旅游总收入增长率、旅游总收入占GDP比重、交通事故发生数和旅游业增长弹性系数是敦煌市经济系统脆弱性最主要的影响因素。而人均GDP、旅游业增长弹性系数和城镇居民可支配收入三项指标是影响敦煌市经济系统应对能力提升的主要障碍因素;4敦煌市在未来经济发展中,应在继续推动旅游经济发展的同时,更加重视产业结构的调整和优化,推动产业多元化发展,大力提升敦煌市经济系统的应对能力,以此提高敦煌市社会经济的可持续发展能力和水平。

Taking Dunhuang city along One Belt and One Road as a case,this paper has analyzed and evaluated the vulnerability of economic system of Dunhuang city quantitatively by constructing vulnerability assessment model and evaluation index system of small and medium-sized tourism cities. The paper revealed the relationship between ' sensitivity', ' response capacity ' and the vulnerability of economic system of Dunhuang city through multiple linear regression,and it also did quantitative analysis about the affecting factors of vulnerability of economic system. The results show that: 1 The index of economic system of Dunhuang city has changed with a obvious stage characteristics. In the first stage,all indexes has changed relatively stable,but sensitivity and fragility were gradual decline in the second stage. 2 The vulnerability of economic system of Dunhuang city is the accumulation type of endogenous structure,sensitivity have a more significant influence on the fragility. 3 Education spending accounts for local fiscal expenditure,tourism revenue growth,tourism revenues accounts for GDP,the number of traffic accident and tourism growth elasticity coefficient are the main influencing factors to the economy system vulnerability of Dunhuang city,while GDP per capita,tourism growth elasticity coefficient and disposable income of urban residents are the main obstacle factors for improve coping capacity of economy system. 4 Dunhuang city should be to promoting the development of tourism economy continuously in the future,pay more attention to the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure,promoting the development of industrial diversification and the response capacity of economic system vigorously at the same time,so as to improving the sustainable development ability and level of social and economic.