基于偏离-份额法的县域产业结构转变与竞争力分析——以河南省为例

Analysis on Industrial Structure Transformation and Competitiveness at County Level Based on Shift-Share Analysis Method—— A Case Study of Henan Province

本文采用偏离-份额法分析了河南省县域经济产业结构变动趋势。研究发现:1工业增长较快的县域产业结构偏离分量和竞争力分量相对较高,和全省产业变动趋势相同,表现出较强的产业结构竞争力;2县域产业结构及其竞争力变化大。在宏观经济快速增长的背景下,传统农业县产业结构容易由第一产业为主向第二、第三产业为主转变,但发展到一定程度后产业结构很难有质的突破,竞争力下降,而对于工业化较早的县域,产业结构未能持续升级,竞争力很难维持。而依靠旅游、特色农业和矿产资源开发的新兴县域产业结构表现出较强竞争力。3探索出河南产业结构竞争力空间"热点"和"冷点"。少数产业结构竞争力上升县域和下降县域分别在豫西地区、豫西北地区集中连片分布,而多数县域产业结构竞争力不变并集中分布在豫东平原地区,呈现出空间相关性。县域产业结构多样化增加,在全省工业化加快趋势下,工业发展较快的县域产业结构更容易表现出较强的竞争力,同样,农业发展形成的产业特色也可以增强产业竞争力。

The paper aims to explore transformation of industrial structure at county level in Henan province by using Shift-Share Analysis Method. The results as following are found: 1 Mostly counties with higher secondary and tertiary industries growth stay more competitive on the background of increasing industrialization. 2 Industrial structure and competitive power at county level are constantly changing,and there are differences among them. For the counties with transformation from traditional agriculture-based to non-agriculture-based,further improving and upgrading of industrial structure is extremely difficult. For the counties that industrialization start relatively earlier,it is difficult to keep staying more industrial structure competitiveness without continuous improvement and up-grade of industrial structure. And counties with rapidly growth in tourist industry,characteristic agriculture and mental mining industry have been gaining their competitiveness against the others. 3 The spatial ' hot spot' and ' cold spot' of economic growth in Henan province are found. The counties with rising industrial competitive power are in the obviously centralized distribution in the west Henan province while the counties with declining industrial competitive power in the west-north Henan province. Most of counties with unchanging industrial competitive power mainly are distributed in the east Henan province plain. So diversity of industrial structure at county level is increasing. And counties with specialty industry such as characteristic agriculture can also enhance its industrial structure competitiveness,just as counties with higher secondary and tertiary industries growth do. Meanwhile the spatial pattern of industrial structure competitiveness indicates there is a substantial spatial correlation among economic growth at county level.