西部地区财政支出、城镇化与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationships between Financial Expenditure,Urbanization and Economic Growth in Western China

本文基于1993年~2011年的数据构建VAR(3)模型,实证分析了西部地区财政支出、城镇化和经济增长之间的动态关系,并进行了长期协整关系分析。结果表明:三个变量共同作用时都是任一变量的格兰杰原因。在短期内,经济增长受到城镇化的正向影响,滞后三期的系数较大,对来自城镇化冲击的正向反馈出现较慢;城镇化受经济增长的影响较大,对来自经济增长冲击的正向反馈出现较快,也受到滞后三期的城镇化的较大影响。在长期内,城镇化、财政支出和经济增长之间存在均衡的协整关系,城镇化对经济增长有积极的促进作用。

According to the data during 1993-2011,the paper does an empirical analysis about the dynamic relationships between financial expenditure,urbanization and economic growth in western China by using a VAR model,and it also analyzes the long run cointegration relationship. It concludes that:( 1) Three variables together are the Granger cause to any one of them.( 2) In the short term,economic growth is positively influenced by urbanization with a bigger coefficient of the third lagged of urbanization,and gives a slower positive response to the impulse of urbanization. Urbanization is mainly influenced by economic growth,and gives a quicker positive response to the impulse of economic growth. It also influenced by the third lagged of financial expenditure positively.( 3) Financial expenditure,urbanization and economic growth have the long-term co-integration relationships,and urbanization promotes economic growth in western China.