人民币升值与我国贸易顺差扩大为何长期并存?——基于引入贸易方式的沉淀成本模型分析

Why RMB Appreciation and China's Trade Surplus Expansion Have Coexisted for A Long Time?——An Analysis Based on the Sunk Costs-Model Considering the Way of the Trade

笔者从供给角度,考虑厂商的沉淀成本,结合我国贸易的特殊情况,综合借鉴Dixit的两个沉淀成本模型的思想,引入代表贸易方式的变量,构建模型,得到一个汇率的"无变范围",以此解释为什么人民币升值而我国贸易顺差不减却反增。结论表明,要改变我国当前的贸易顺差状况,重要的是降低厂商的沉淀成本、改变贸易方式及提高产品的附加值,以增加贸易对汇率的敏感性,而不是过分强调人民币的升值。

From the perspective of the supply,considering the sunk costs of the firm and the special situation of China's trade,the paper makes a model learned from the two sunk costs-models proposed by Dixit. It also introduces the variables that describe the way of the trade in the model. Then an exchange rate band of no change is derived to explain why there is no decrease but increase in China's trade surplus while the RMB appreciates. The results show that reducing the company's sunk costs,changing the way of trade and adding the value of products to increase the sensitivity of trade to the exchange rate,rather than to emphasize the appreciation of the RMB,are important to reduce the current trade surplus.