基于CMS模型的我国粮食进口贸易波动分析

Analysis on the Fluctuation of China Grain Import Based on the CMS Model

笔者运用CMS模型分析了入世以来我国粮食进口波动的影响因素。研究表明:进口引力是影响我国粮食进口波动的最主要因素;结构效应对我国粮食进口波动也有重要影响。在入世过渡期,我国粮食进口增长主要源自进口引力;在波动徘徊期,世界粮食市场变化下的结构效应成为我国粮食进口波动的主因;金融危机以来,引力、结构效应共同刺激了我国粮食进口的增长,但市场与商品结构效应均不显著。应加强粮食进口宏观管理,稳定粮食进口来源,调整粮食进口品种结构,并加快完善我国粮食贸易的技术性措施制度。

Through CMS model,this paper analyzes the influential factors of our country's grain import fluctuation after the accession to the WTO. The results show:( 1) The import gravity is the main factor to the fluctuation of our country's grain import,and the structural effect also has great influence on it.( 2) During the transition period of joining the WTO,the import gravity was the main source of the growth of our grain import; during the wandering period,the structural effect by the changes of world grain market became the main cause of the import fluctuation of our country.( 3) Since the financial crisis,the import gravity,together with the structural effect,have been stimulating the increase of our grain import,but both the market structure effect and commodity structure effect are not significant. It is necessary to strengthen the macro management of grain import,to stabilize the import source and to adjust the import variety structure of grain,and to speed up the perfection of our country's technical measure system in grain trade.