我国企业职工基本养老保险可持续性及其影响因素研究——基于省级面板数据

Research on Sustainability and Influencing Factors of the Basic Old-age Insurance for Enterprise Employees——Based on Provincial Panel Data

笔者基于面板数据模型,从我国企业职工基本养老保险覆盖人口状况的角度,采用我国31个省级地区2001年~2011年的数据对其可持续性做定量分析研究,建立面板数据个体随机效应模型,分析结果表明,缴费人数增长率、领取养老金人数增长率和基金率对企业职工养老保险的可持续性均有较强的显著性影响。

This paper,using panel data of China's 31 provinces from 2001 to 2011,establishes entity random effects regression model based on panel data theory to research on the sustainability and influencing factors of the basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees from the population aspect of the system coverage. The analysis conclusions indicate that the growth rate of number of contributors,the growth rate of number of pensioners and fund rate have significant influence on the sustainability of basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees.