基于增加值核算法的中美和中韩贸易还原

A Revelation of the True State of Sino-US and Sino-Korea Bilateral Trades in Value-Added Statistics

笔者利用多国增加值贸易模型,基于从OECD-WTO数据库获得的最新数据,对中美、中韩以及中国对外贸易状况分别进行重估。结果表明:总值法扭曲了中国贸易状况,加深了不必要的贸易摩擦。2001年~2011年,增加值法统计的中国出口额平均占传统值的73%,即削减了中国的庞大出口。同期的中国各双边贸易净额均存在高估。总值法对中美、中韩真实贸易净额年均高估程度分别达250%和31%,增加值法缩小了中美、中韩贸易失衡程度,其中多数行业真实贸易净额与传统值相比都存在显著差异。

Based on the newest statistics from OECD-WTO database,this paper adopts the Multilateral Trade in Value Added Model to reevaluate the true state of Sino-US and Sino-Korea bilateral trades. The results show that traditional statistical method distorts Chinese foreign trade reality and worsen trade friction China suffers. The ratio of two export sum under different statistical method is 73%,which means the value added method significantly cuts down Chinese high and unfair export and the net trade volumes between China and its principal trade partners are mostly overvalued. The proportions of over-valuation in Sino-US and Sino-Korea net trade are respectively 250% and 31%. In addition,compared with traditional trade volumes,the real bilateral net trades in most industries have also undergone significant changes.