我国省际消费风险分担的周期波动性研究——基于小微企业信贷可得性视角的解释

A Research of the Volatility in Provincial Consumption Risk Sharing Cycle——The Role of SME Credit Availability

我国地区间消费风险分担的现有文献主要关注消费风险分担的水平和渠道,而忽略了消费风险分担的周期波动性及其原因。笔者利用省际面板数据,实证检验我国省际消费风险分担的周期波动性,并计量小微企业信贷可得性的改善和能否通过小微企业主的收入保险机制影响我国省际消费风险分担的周期波动性。结果显示:我国省际消费风险分担呈顺周期特征;尽管小微企业信贷可得性对我国省际消费风险分担周期波动性的影响存在地域性差异,但小微企业主的收入保险机制在我国已经开始发挥效应。因此,加强小微企业的信贷支持、促进小微企业主收入保险机制进一步发挥作用,对于平滑消费和增加社会福利具有重要意义。

The major concerns of current study on consumption risk sharing focus on consumption risk sharing level and channels,and ignored the consumption risk sharing cycle volatility and its reason. This study uses provincial panel data to examine how small and micro enterprises( SME) credit availability changes the cyclical dependence of risk sharing through SME owner's income insurance mechanism. The results show that the extent of risk sharing is procyclical. Although SME credit availability's influences on our provincial consumption risk sharing cycle is different,the income insurance mechanism of SME has already started to have an influence.Therefore,to increase the support to SME credit availability,and to promote small business owners income insurance mechanism to play a bigger role,is of great significance to smooth consumption and increase social welfare.