自由贸易区的经济增长效应研究——基于双重差分空间自回归模型的动态分析

Study on the Economic Growth Effect of Free Trade Zones——A Dynamic Analysis Based on Double Difference Space Autoregressive Model

使用2009—2017年省级面板数据,基于双重差分空间自回归模型,从总体考察、区域比较、时间趋势等多角度就我国现有11个自贸区对地区经济增长的影响强度展开经验研究。结果表明:(1)从总体上看,自贸区设立对经济增长均具有显著正向促进效应。从效应强度看,相较人均国内生产总值,其对国内生产总值总量的促进作用更大。从空间效应看,各自贸区对周边省份的空间正向溢出效应均比较显著。(2)从区域比较看,沿海自贸区对经济增长的正向促进效应小于内陆型自贸区。(3)从时间趋势看,三批自贸区对经济增长的正向促进效应呈现先下降后上升的U形趋势。据此,应加大自贸区战略实施力度,完善自贸区空间辐射机制;优化自贸区空间布局,推动自贸区因地制宜地差异化发展;设计自贸区梯度发展路径,充分释放系统化协同效应,以推动自贸区战略更好地服务于我国经济发展。

Using the provincial panel data from 2009 to 2017 and the double difference space autoregressive model,this article studies the economic growth effect of the 11 free trade zones from the perspectives of overall investigation,regional comparison as well as time trend.The results show that:1)the establishment of the free trade zone has a significant positive effect on the economic growth in general.Compared with the GDP per capita,there is a greater role in promoting the total GDP in terms of the intensity of the effect.At the same time,the establishment of free trade zones has a significant positive spillover effect on the surrounding provinces.2)From a regional perspective,the positive effect of coastal free trade zones on economic growth is smaller than that of inland free trade zones.3)From the perspective of time trend,the positive effect of the three batches of free trade zones on economic growth show a'U'trend that first declines and then rises.Based on these conclusions,this paper proposes some targeted countermeasures to better enhance the promotion effect of free trade zone strategy on China’s economic development,such as strengthening the implementation of the strategy,improving the space radiation mechanism,optimizing the spatial pattern,promoting the differentiated development according to local conditions,designing a gradient development path,fully releasing systematic synergy and so on.