我国财政政策对经济增长的动态效应研究——基于“总量调控+结构优化”双轮驱动的检验

Reserch on Dynamic Effects of China’s Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth——A Test Based on the Double Drive of“Aggregate Adjustment + Structural Optimization”

利用2007—2018年的宏观数据,基于总量和结构视角,运用MS-VAR模型和SV-TVP-FAVAR模型分析我国财政政策对经济增长的动态影响。实证结果表明:(1)在经济适速增长阶段,总量上看,财政支出和税收都对经济增长具有负向冲击效应;结构上看,教科研支出和投资性支出对经济增长具有正向冲击效应,一般公共服务支出、增值税、消费税和所得税对经济增长具有负向冲击效应。(2)在经济高速增长阶段,总量上看,财政支出和税收都对经济增长具有正向冲击效应;结构上看,教科研支出、投资性支出、增值税和所得税对经济增长具有正向冲击效应,一般公共服务支出和消费税对经济增长具有负向冲击效应。为此,国家既要对特定产业实施积极的财政政策,又要对具体行业实行结构性优化。

Based on data between 2007 and 2018,this paper uses MS-VAR model and SV-TVP-FAVAR model to study the dynamic impacts of China’s fiscal policy on economic growth from both the aggregate and structural perspective.The results show that firstly,in the period of moderate economic growth,the fiscal expenditure has a positive impact on economic growth while taxation has a negative one in terms of the aggregate;education and scientific research expenditure and investment expenditure have a positive impact while the general public service expenditure,value-added tax,consumption tax and income tax have negative impacts in terms of the structure.Secondly,in the period of rapid economic growth,both fiscal expenditure and taxation have a positive impact on economic growth in terms of the aggregate;education and scientific research expenditure,investment expenditure,value-added tax and income tax have a positive impact while the general public service expenditure and consumption tax have a negative impact in terms of the structure.It is necessary to implement a proactive fiscal policy for specific industries on the one hand,and to implement structural optimization on the other.