新时代背景下建立中日韩自贸区的经济影响研究——基于CGE模型的分析

Research on the Economic Impact of Establishing China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement under the Background of New Era——Analysis Based on CGE Model

在全球价值链相关理论视角下,结合当前国际贸易形势,运用标准GTAP模型分析了关税调整和贸易便利化提升对中日韩各国的经济影响。通过研究发现,在三种预设情景下,韩国产出得到增加,中国影响较小,而日本则受到负面影响较大。在单一关税减让政策下,中国GDP、福利分别减少0.0105%、7.567亿美元,但加入贸易便利化提升政策后,中国宏观经济明显改善。推动中国持续对外开放,以互尊互信、平等互商、共建共享、逐步推进的原则,提升贸易便利化,适度削减关税,系统化制定适合各国实际的定制化贸易政策,将有助于中日韩自贸区早日达成,实现共赢,提升人民福祉。

Based on the theory of global value chain,combined with the current international trade situation,the standard GTAP model is used to analyze the economic impact of tariff adjustment and trade facilitation on China,Japan and Korea.Through research,it is found that under the three preset scenarios,South Korea’s output has increased,China’s influence is small,and Japan has been negatively affected.Under the single tariff reduction policy,China’s GDP and welfare decreased by 0.0105%and US$756.7 million,respectively.However,after joining the trade facilitation promotion policy,China’s macro economy improved and promoted significantly.Promoting China’s continued opening up to the outside world,with the principles of mutual respect and mutual trust,equality and mutual business,joint construction and sharing,and gradual advancement,enhancing trade facilitation,moderately reducing tariffs,and systematically formulating customized trade policies that are suitable for each country’s actual situation will help China,Japan and Korea to reach Free Trade Zone as soon as possible,achieve a win-win situation and enhance the well-being of the people.