危机冲击能否倒逼中国制造业产品质量提升——基于行业出口国内增加值率差异的分析

Can Crisis Shock Improve the Quality of Manufacturing Products in China: An Analysis Based on the Differences in Industrial Export DVAR

基于2000-2013年中国工业企业数据库、中国海关数据库和WIOD数据库的匹配数据,本文以2008年金融危机为准自然实验,运用双重差分模型系统评估危机冲击对异质性中国制造业出口产品质量的差异化影响。研究发现:(1)金融危机对不同制造业行业出口产品质量的影响具有差异性,危机冲击可以倒逼高出口国内增加值率的行业提升产品质量。(2)危机冲击主要通过行业全要素生产率和加成率对异质性制造业行业的出口产品质量产生影响,存在"金融危机冲击→全要素生产率变化/加成率变化→技术创新/市场份额→高出口国内增加值率行业质量提升"的传导机制。(3)创新投入存在延迟效应,最终使危机冲击对制造业产品质量的长期动态效应呈现"U"型特征。本文的研究结论对于如何更好应对全球贸易不稳定因素,推进制造业高质量发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。

Based on the matching data of Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database,Chinese Customs Database and WIOD Database from 2000 to 2013,this paper takes the financial crisis in2008 as quasi-natural experiment,uses the Difference-in-Differences model system to evaluate the different impact of crisis on the quality of heterogeneous Chinese export manufacturing products.This paper finds that:(1)The financial crisis has diverse impact on the quality of export products of different manufacturing industries.Crisis shock can force industries with high export DVAR to improve their quality of products.(2)The crisis mainly affects the quality of export products of heterogeneous manufacturing industries through total factor productivity(TFP)and mark-up rate.There is a transmission mechanism:financial crisis shock→change in TFP/mark-up rate→technological innovation/market share increasement→quality improvement of industrial products with high export domestic value added rate.(3)There exists a delay effect in innovation investment,which finally makes the long-term dynamic impact of crisis shock on the quality of manufacturing products present a U-shaped feature.Conclusions of this paper have important theoretical and practical significance for how to better cope with the unstable factors in global trade and promote high-quality development of manufacturing industries.