企业杠杆率动态调整效应与“去杠杆”路径选择

Dynamic Adjustment Effect of Firm Leverage Ratio and the Selection of Deleveraging Path

本文研究了企业杠杆率的两类动态调整效应——全要素生产率效应和企业风险效应,利用1998-2015年上市公司微观面板数据的实证分析表明:(1)企业杠杆率与全要素生产率之间存在"倒U型"关系,而与企业风险之间存在"U型"关系,后者对应的拐点杠杆率更低。(2)中长期较短期杠杆率可以在更大区间兼顾"提效率"与"降风险"目标。(3)企业向成长期-成熟期-衰退期迈进的过程中,"倒U型"和"U型"拐点来临更快,降杠杆的迫切性越来越高。为此,企业"去杠杆"需充分考虑杠杆率的"效率"与"风险"效应,并结合企业生命周期所处阶段以及杠杆率期限结构特征的不同而采取差异化策略。

Using the micro-panel data of listed companies from 1998 to 2015,this paper studies two dynamic adjustment effects of firm leverage ratio: TFP effect and firm risk effect. The empirical results show that,( 1) Inverted U-Shape relationship exists between leverage ratio of firms and TFP,while the relationship between leverage ratio and firm risk is of U-Shape. The latter relationship turns up at a lower leverage ratio;( 2) Medium-to-long-term leverage ratio can achieve 'efficiency improvement'and 'risk reduction'goals in a larger interval than short term;( 3) During the life cycle of firms from growth to maturity and to recession,the inflection points of U-Shape and inverted U-Shape curves come earlier;deleveraging becomes more urgent.Consequently,firm deleveraging process should take both efficiency and risk effect of leverage ratio into fully consideration,meanwhile adopt differentiated strategy in combination with the stage of enterprise life cycle and structural features of leverage ratio.