行业技术效率测度与全要素生产率增长的分解

Measurement of Industrial Technical Efficiency and Decomposition of Growth in Total Factor Productivity

本文以行业为生产单元,利用随机前沿生产函数模型,测度了2005-2016年间的技术效率,并用"前沿面法"对行业全要素生产率(TFP)进行了全面的分解和测算。结果表明:我国各行业的生产率均呈现逐年下降的趋势,产出增长率已经历加速转向减速的拐点,财政刺激经济增长会加剧TFP的下滑;规模报酬递减是TFP下滑的主因,配置效率会随规模报酬而波动;技术进步是促进TFP增长的重要因素,技术效率改进并不显著;经济过度依赖房地产、批发和零售业等规模报酬快速递减的行业,而制造业、金融业等技术进步较大的行业却资源投入不足,从而阻碍了生产率的增长。因此,在供给侧结构性改革背景下,政府应加快各行业的经济体制改革,而不宜过多干预经济增速下降的"新常态",资源的配置效率将是今后改革和发展的核心命题。

This paper takes industries as production units,uses the stochastic frontier production function model to measure the technical efficiency from 2005 to 2016,and applies the'frontier method'to comprehensively decompose and measure the TFP of industries.The results show that the productivity of industries in China has been declining year by year;the growth rate of output has gone through the knee point from acceleration to deceleration,and fiscal stimulus to economic growth will cause the TFP to slump.Decreasing returns to scale is the main reason for the TFP decline and allocative efficiency will fluctuate with the returns.Technological progress is the boosting factor but the improvement of technical efficiency is not significant.Economic has been over relying on real estate,wholesale and retail industries,whose returns to scale are rapidly declining;while we put too little resources into financial and manufacturing industries,which have seen relatively rapid technological progress.Consequently,under the Supply-Side Structural Reform,the government should accelerate the reform of economic system and stop interfering too much with the New Normal.Allocative efficiency of resources will be the focus of future reform and development.