人口年龄结构对中国经济增长的需求影响机制研究

A Study on the Demand Influence Mechanism of the Age Structure of Population to Economic Growth in China

本文研究人口年龄结构对中国经济增长的需求影响机制。从封闭、开放视角分析人口年龄结构对储蓄率、经常项目差额的影响,从长期动态视角探讨人口年龄结构、经常项目差额、储蓄、经济增长之间的格兰杰因果关系。研究发现:从人口结构角度可较好的解释中国'高储蓄、高顺差'现象,年龄结构变动显著影响储蓄率和经常项目差额,人口年龄结构变动作用于经济增长的短期渠道通畅:人口年龄结构、储蓄、经常项目差额、经济增长之间存在长期因果关系和稳定均衡作用。

The demand influence mechanism of the age structure of population to China’s economic growth is studied in this paper.We analyzed the influence of the age structure to the saving rate,and the current account balance from the closed and the open view,respectively.The Granger Causality among the age structure,the saving rate,the current account balance and the economic growth is also studied in a long-term and dynamic prospective.We find that we can explain the phenomenon of " high savings,high trade surplus" well from the age structure view.The change of the age structure has significantly effects on the saving rate and the current account balance.The short-term channel is open for the age structure to the economic growth.There are long-term Granger Causality and the stable equilibrium relationship among the age structure,the saving rate,the current account balance and the economic growth.